I don't understand why the proud boy visit to the White House and subsequent right wing violence in Washington last weekend hasn't been a bigger story. Please tell me that there are people watching these groups and taking it seriously. My husband has a cousin in Michigan who told him that they would "spare our family" when they come down with their guns. (We live in Chicago?!) My husband laughed at my concern and said that they're just a bunch of clowns. I think all of these white terrorists are a bunch of clowns, but that doesn't mean they aren't dangerous. Doesn't this behavior bother all of the Republicans who claim to be so afraid of riots?
Of the points you make the 'weaponise' one strikes me as the most important - they are like this because they don't see the electoral downside of it. If they can get the GOP nomination in their district or state they think the General will be fine - and if going for national office, they think a combination of vote suppression, base motivation and a lack of motivation by opponents will see them through.
And the scary thing is that they may well be right.
If there's one thing the cause of democracy needs next year it is for donors and activists to spend the year trying to make this a wedge issue for the 25% of GOP voters who are not adherents of the new Lost Cause.
The US lost 100 years of potential social progress because of a refusal to understand that you have to fight irredentism for more than one of two electoral cycles. As the US becomes ever more polarised and radicalised, comparisons with history are seeming less far-fetched.
All good points. But I am not optimistic than any of this will matter. I fear we've already lost 2022. Biden had no coattails so we lost D 2018 House gains. Nationalizing Senate elections was shockingly unsuccessful. Few changes in state legislatures that will let us make a dent in gerrymandering. If we win, it will be because we fight at the state and local level. What's the DCCC and DSC ground game these days?
BTW, another casualty that I've been thinking about is the future of small donor fundraising. Candidates raised record-breaking amounts from small donors like me, encouraged by the high stakes and close polls. All for naught. Candidates raised millions more than they could spend. But I'm still getting emails asking for money? Sorry, I feel like a chump. I've unsubscribed from every candidate listserve and deactivate my ActBlue account. This month I sent my money to a local food bank instead. Not sure I'll give to an out-of-state candidate again.
Love these insights and the action items. My question is - are there any republicans (politicians or otherwise) having this conversation? Are there moderate republicans somewhere trying to figure out a strategy to primary from the left/center? Or have they all given up? Larry Hogan is the only one I can think of outside of the senators you mentioned who have acknowledged Biden’s win.
I love getting your analysis. I do have a question. Even though we are all sceptical of polls, let’s face it we still want to know. What is current situation in Georgia? Is the insanity having any impact? Thanks
Excellent analysis and I propose a slight reframe. I don't really think the R's have "lost their minds." They are playing a mean game. A great CNN analysis I read and can no longer find suggested that it is just not a big step from "they are stealing America/our way of life" to "they stole the election." So, yes we will see more of this. But I think they have lost their hearts, not so much their minds, long ago (hence Tea Party wins) bc the diversity of this country is growing, and there is a core fear of losing whatever the hell White Christian Superiority ever was. Thus the continued gerrymandering and voter suppression and yes it will get worse. Your solutions are all spot on. The other solution, I cannot say it enough, is for Dems to make people's lives actually better. (Yes we need GA.) If we do this, many people who are just playing follow the leader may actually recover their hearts. Their minds may follow.
The Republican Party is so disturbing, but I remain hopeful that Trumpism will still destroy it eventually. Today's right-wing movement, which accelerated in '09, will come to a fitting end. So as disappointing as Trump’s single-digit loss was, his grip on the party should hurt Republicans' ability to expand their base and nominate more electable frauds like Paul Ryan. Instead they’ll be forced to stay insane, as the white-grievance base shrinks, then lose in landslides in the general.
I predict that in '24 Ted Cruz will win with a Trump-themed campaign, after convincing Don Jr. to run for his Texas seat, and then he’ll pick Haley or Noem as his running mate. (I think Cruz is the early favoite because he seemed to run the most sophisticated, data-driven campaign in '16 and he outperformed little Marco. He attacked Jeb and Obamacare and immigration, showing that he hit the same cords that Trump instinctively recognized. And the donor class will probably prefer him to Don Jr.) Then Cruz will try to replicate Trump’s bluster, which will fail because Trump is uniquely shameless and Cruz isn't booned by a false perception of business success, and he’ll lose to Biden by 15 million votes. And Trumpism will be dead forever, but not before thoroughly destroying the modern right, characterized by Tea Party/Fox News-fueled extremisism.
🙏 ... But that's thinking way too far ahead. We have a lot to accomplish in the next four years – or three weeks.
I agree, "It's not great, Dan."-----You have made the case that Republicans are interested in power at any cost quite well and they are seeing the path to do that and it's not pretty.
I'm trying to figure out why such a large American population is attracted to the chaos/conspiracy dark world that allows right wing primary challenges to be successful? It wouldn't be a threat if it didn't psychologically appeal to people or meet a need.. Why do people need/crave/love their guns for instance? Or is the appeal merely boredom/dissatisfaction with their current life and the need to have excitement somewhere else? Or is it the need to feel like their racist views are justified? (BTW my husband is 100% of the the last theory)
If we know their motivations, it would help moving forward. How many psychologists do we have on staff? LOL
I don't understand why the proud boy visit to the White House and subsequent right wing violence in Washington last weekend hasn't been a bigger story. Please tell me that there are people watching these groups and taking it seriously. My husband has a cousin in Michigan who told him that they would "spare our family" when they come down with their guns. (We live in Chicago?!) My husband laughed at my concern and said that they're just a bunch of clowns. I think all of these white terrorists are a bunch of clowns, but that doesn't mean they aren't dangerous. Doesn't this behavior bother all of the Republicans who claim to be so afraid of riots?
Very good analysis.
Of the points you make the 'weaponise' one strikes me as the most important - they are like this because they don't see the electoral downside of it. If they can get the GOP nomination in their district or state they think the General will be fine - and if going for national office, they think a combination of vote suppression, base motivation and a lack of motivation by opponents will see them through.
And the scary thing is that they may well be right.
If there's one thing the cause of democracy needs next year it is for donors and activists to spend the year trying to make this a wedge issue for the 25% of GOP voters who are not adherents of the new Lost Cause.
The US lost 100 years of potential social progress because of a refusal to understand that you have to fight irredentism for more than one of two electoral cycles. As the US becomes ever more polarised and radicalised, comparisons with history are seeming less far-fetched.
Really like the action items, I’ll have to remember them, they’re so distilled. Praying for wins in Georgia (and donating, and volunteering...)
All good points. But I am not optimistic than any of this will matter. I fear we've already lost 2022. Biden had no coattails so we lost D 2018 House gains. Nationalizing Senate elections was shockingly unsuccessful. Few changes in state legislatures that will let us make a dent in gerrymandering. If we win, it will be because we fight at the state and local level. What's the DCCC and DSC ground game these days?
BTW, another casualty that I've been thinking about is the future of small donor fundraising. Candidates raised record-breaking amounts from small donors like me, encouraged by the high stakes and close polls. All for naught. Candidates raised millions more than they could spend. But I'm still getting emails asking for money? Sorry, I feel like a chump. I've unsubscribed from every candidate listserve and deactivate my ActBlue account. This month I sent my money to a local food bank instead. Not sure I'll give to an out-of-state candidate again.
Love these insights and the action items. My question is - are there any republicans (politicians or otherwise) having this conversation? Are there moderate republicans somewhere trying to figure out a strategy to primary from the left/center? Or have they all given up? Larry Hogan is the only one I can think of outside of the senators you mentioned who have acknowledged Biden’s win.
I love getting your analysis. I do have a question. Even though we are all sceptical of polls, let’s face it we still want to know. What is current situation in Georgia? Is the insanity having any impact? Thanks
Excellent analysis and I propose a slight reframe. I don't really think the R's have "lost their minds." They are playing a mean game. A great CNN analysis I read and can no longer find suggested that it is just not a big step from "they are stealing America/our way of life" to "they stole the election." So, yes we will see more of this. But I think they have lost their hearts, not so much their minds, long ago (hence Tea Party wins) bc the diversity of this country is growing, and there is a core fear of losing whatever the hell White Christian Superiority ever was. Thus the continued gerrymandering and voter suppression and yes it will get worse. Your solutions are all spot on. The other solution, I cannot say it enough, is for Dems to make people's lives actually better. (Yes we need GA.) If we do this, many people who are just playing follow the leader may actually recover their hearts. Their minds may follow.
Excellent analysis!
The Republican Party is so disturbing, but I remain hopeful that Trumpism will still destroy it eventually. Today's right-wing movement, which accelerated in '09, will come to a fitting end. So as disappointing as Trump’s single-digit loss was, his grip on the party should hurt Republicans' ability to expand their base and nominate more electable frauds like Paul Ryan. Instead they’ll be forced to stay insane, as the white-grievance base shrinks, then lose in landslides in the general.
I predict that in '24 Ted Cruz will win with a Trump-themed campaign, after convincing Don Jr. to run for his Texas seat, and then he’ll pick Haley or Noem as his running mate. (I think Cruz is the early favoite because he seemed to run the most sophisticated, data-driven campaign in '16 and he outperformed little Marco. He attacked Jeb and Obamacare and immigration, showing that he hit the same cords that Trump instinctively recognized. And the donor class will probably prefer him to Don Jr.) Then Cruz will try to replicate Trump’s bluster, which will fail because Trump is uniquely shameless and Cruz isn't booned by a false perception of business success, and he’ll lose to Biden by 15 million votes. And Trumpism will be dead forever, but not before thoroughly destroying the modern right, characterized by Tea Party/Fox News-fueled extremisism.
🙏 ... But that's thinking way too far ahead. We have a lot to accomplish in the next four years – or three weeks.
I agree, "It's not great, Dan."-----You have made the case that Republicans are interested in power at any cost quite well and they are seeing the path to do that and it's not pretty.
I'm trying to figure out why such a large American population is attracted to the chaos/conspiracy dark world that allows right wing primary challenges to be successful? It wouldn't be a threat if it didn't psychologically appeal to people or meet a need.. Why do people need/crave/love their guns for instance? Or is the appeal merely boredom/dissatisfaction with their current life and the need to have excitement somewhere else? Or is it the need to feel like their racist views are justified? (BTW my husband is 100% of the the last theory)
If we know their motivations, it would help moving forward. How many psychologists do we have on staff? LOL
I love the analysis, just not the typos.