13 Comments

Glad you wrote this! I hope everyone stops agonizing about ratings and polls and just gets to work rallying everyone they know to get out and vote for Democrats. We have the power to control our destiny. Let’s use it!

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Aug 25, 2022·edited Aug 25, 2022

I've been really worried that all the news and analysis of Biden's "unpopularity" over the past year would discourage Dem voter turnout. It's a bit of a relief to see a number of stories now saying, hold on; maybe we spoke too soon and there won't be such a red wave after all. Hopefully the change in narrative continues and contributes to a positive feedback loop – energizing Dem candidates, campaign workers and voters.

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Thank you. Whether or not Biden’s approval matters doesn’t change the work we need to do.

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I am really appreciative that you are taking a fresh look at how a president’s approval rating drives the midterm outcome. As you’re aware, for many reporters and pundits, it’s the only driver. I find that (and its corollary, that history determines the midterms) to be easy fallback positions for people tired of thinking. It’s like the old saw about which league wins either the World Series or the Super Bowl determining which party takes the White House. Those are silly coincidences, but the first two can actually deflate turnout.

BTW, is anyone else amused by Mitch McConnell (and many others) saying, “The Senate is different. Here candidate quality matters”, and no one in the House saying, “Hey, wait a damn minute!” But then I sat next to Rep. Hank Johnson on a plane just after he asked in an Armed Services hearing if the military was thinking that adding more hardware to Guam might capsize it.

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Maybe addressing student loan debt will help the President as well? The elections are state by state, district by district. I think feelings about President Biden can be put into a separate window from the general feelings of anxiety and unhappiness--especially when the roots of that dissatisfaction are fed not only be economics now but also by: a woman's right to choose, gun violence, care for veterans, student debt, climate change, public education, and more. I am one of those who appreciates Biden's leadership in these times. But, I understand that others see through different eyes. I think two windows--one a "Biden Feeling" window--the other the "window of concerns." In that second widow the Republicans are not just failures, they are causes of problems. Let's get people out to vote as they look through the window of their concerns. It is easy to gripe about Joe Biden--demand on our political system is overwhelming and places unrealistic expectations on our democracy--and he is "older." Even so, I think Americans are gradually coming around, and they can compartmentalize their anxieties and fears. We can do this--and I just hope there is time.

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I so appreciate your breakdown of the numbers here, and this is why I am a qualitative researcher - the story behind the numbers matters. I also appreciate your healthy skepticism of polling data - we've been bitten by that before, and it is critical to keep a thoughtful distance from what it reflects. This is especially true with regard to how polling is done - I sure don't answer calls from unknown numbers, and I have no idea if a pollster was on the line even if the caller ID said so.

I have a question that I'd love to see you address either here or in a future column - have you looked at the Oregon governor's race? The recent Rolling Stone article about Betsy Johnson was really intriguing. From what I've read it's a tight 3-way race, but Oregon is, at its core, weird.

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None of these prognosticators has reckoned with Dobbs. Democrats are going to win big on that alone. And the candidates are aware of it.

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Ok Dan. It’s your life’s work to study, analyze and comment on politics. So I think you know what you’re talking about. BUT…everybody has to work harder than ever before to stave off this culmination of the R’s 40 year plan for fascism.

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It was kinda fun though, doing our best to drive DJT's approval down. He deserved every point we shaved off.

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I'm not big for reading entrails, e.g., polls, but I admit I got a pleasant jolt from Steve Kornacki's bit a couple of days ago about special elections. The pattern since the Dobbs decision came down, he suggested, is not unlike the pattern that led up to the Blue Wave blowout of 2018. Sometimes I just can't resist those entrails . . .

About polls, I like to think that Democratic-leaning voters are better informed than the MAGA crowd, but I wouldn't put much money on it. Here in MA, our state primary is in less than two weeks (the day after Labor Day), we've got several statewide contested races and some really excellent candidates running, but if most of my reasonably well informed friends, acquaintances, and neighbors were polled, the only name most of them would probably recognize is that of Attorney General Maura Healey, who is, all the gods and entrails willing, going to be our next governor. As a local Dem activist, I've heard all the candidates speak, most of them at least twice, so I'm going to be spamming everyone I know over the next few days telling them who to vote for.

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